India and Pakistan’s Air Battle Is Over. Their Water War Has Begun

The longstanding rivalry between India and Pakistan, once characterized by aerial confrontations and military standoffs, has now shifted to a more insidious and potentially devastating front: water. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 1960 agreement that has long served as a fragile pillar of cooperation, is now at the heart of a new geopolitical crisis. This transformation from airspace confrontations to water disputes marks a significant escalation in Indo-Pakistani tensions.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Fragile Legacy

Signed in 1960, the IWT was a landmark agreement brokered by the World Bank, allocating control over the six rivers of the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan. India was granted control over the eastern rivers—the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—while Pakistan retained rights over the western rivers—the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. This arrangement aimed to ensure equitable water distribution amid growing tensions between the two nations.

However, over the decades, the treaty has faced numerous challenges, including disputes over hydroelectric projects and accusations of violations. The most recent flashpoint occurred in April 2025, following a terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Kashmir, which India attributed to Pakistan-based groups. In retaliation, India announced the suspension of the IWT, citing national security concerns.

The Suspension of the Treaty: A Turning Point

On April 23, 2025, India declared the suspension of the IWT, a move that sent shockwaves through the region. The Indian government justified this decision by pointing to Pakistan's alleged support for cross-border terrorism, particularly following the Pahalgam attack. In response, India ceased the flow of water from the Chenab River via the Baglihar Dam and initiated reservoir flushing to increase storage capacity, actions that were not in compliance with the treaty's stipulations.

Pakistan vehemently condemned India's actions, warning that any attempt to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers could be considered an act of war, with the potential for nuclear escalation.

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Domestic Unrest in Pakistan: The Babarloi Sit-In

The suspension of the IWT coincided with domestic unrest in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh province. In April 2025, protests erupted against the federal government's plan to construct six new canals on the Indus River under the Green Pakistan initiative. Protesters, including lawyers, nationalist organizations, and civil society groups, argued that the canal project threatened Sindh's water resources, fertile lands, and the Indus Delta's ecosystem. The sit-in at Babarloi bypass near Sukkur became a focal point of dissent, leading to significant disruptions and a province-wide shutdown strike.

India's Strategic Recalibration

In the wake of the treaty's suspension, India has signaled a strategic recalibration in its approach to water resources. Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized that while India has not yet taken definitive action, Pakistan's concerns indicate the strategic leverage India holds over shared water resources.

Furthermore, India has formally sought a modification of the IWT, citing unforeseen changes in circumstances, including the need to accelerate the development of clean energy, demographic shifts, and the impact of cross-border terrorism.

The Global Implications

The escalating water dispute between India and Pakistan has garnered international attention. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif raised concerns about the treaty's abeyance at a forum in Tajikistan, aiming to highlight the issue on a global platform and garner international support.

The World Bank, which played a role in mediating the original treaty, has stated that its involvement is limited to facilitating the agreement and will not intervene in the current dispute. This stance leaves the resolution of the conflict squarely in the hands of the two nations.

Conclusion

The shift from aerial confrontations to water disputes signifies a new chapter in the India-Pakistan rivalry. Water, once a symbol of cooperation, has become a potential weapon in the geopolitical arsenal. The outcome of this water war will not only affect the two nations but also have far-reaching implications for regional stability and international relations. As both countries navigate this treacherous terrain, the world watches closely, aware that the flow of water may well determine the course of peace or conflict in South Asia.

FAQ

1. What does "India and Pakistan’s water war" refer to?

The "water war" refers to the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over shared river resources, particularly those governed by the Indus Waters Treaty (1960). Disputes arise from dam constructions, water diversion projects, and accusations of treaty violations, threatening regional water security.

2. Why is the Indus Waters Treaty significant?

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocates control of six major rivers between India (eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan (western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). It has survived past conflicts but is now strained by climate change, population growth, and political mistrust.

3. How is climate change worsening India-Pakistan water disputes?

Melting glaciers, erratic monsoons, and rising temperatures reduce water flow in the Indus Basin. Both countries face shortages, leading to accusations of hoarding or mismanagement, exacerbating conflicts over projects like India’s Kishanganga Dam or Pakistan’s objections to Indian hydropower plans.

4. Could water conflicts lead to military confrontation?

While full-scale war is unlikely, water disputes heighten bilateral tensions. Pakistan has hinted at "water terrorism" claims, while India links water cooperation to broader diplomacy (e.g., terrorism talks). Strategic dam projects or treaty breakdowns could escalate hostilities.

5. What are potential solutions to the water crisis?

Experts suggest: Modernizing the Indus Treaty to address climate change and data-sharing. Joint water management (e.g., flood forecasting, sustainable agriculture). Mediation by neutral parties (e.g., World Bank) to prevent politicization. Investing in water conservation tech to reduce waste in both nations.